January, 2010

Technology — 6 Comments
31
Jan 10

Great Expectations: My iPad Disappointment and Why it Won’t be a Runaway Success!

The iPad is the latest device introduced by Steve Jobs of Apple computers and it is billed to change the computing world forever! This post is about why I am disappointed in the product and why it will not be as successful as the iPod and iPhone were for Apple.

ipad

MY DISAPPOINTMENT

The hype around Apple’s Tablet (as it was called then)  was unimaginable and the coverage was deafening! All bloggers turned detective, they investigated the Who Is (record of the owner) of every i whateveryouputhere domain. Someone even suggested Apple owned the trademark of iSlam. Every acquisition Apple made since 1990 was related to the new technology that would be in the Tablet. It was also  said to have been work on for years (Avatar movie kind of talk).  ‘Apple’s Tablet’ was billed as the most important tablet since Moses brought the commandments from mount Sinai! There were almost as many posts complaining about the coverage of Apples Tablet as the the ones doing the covering. I did not bulge, i was not carried away! All that changed was when I read the quote attributed to Steve Jobs

This will be the most important thing I have ever done in my life

A statement like this coming from the man that delivered the iPod and the iPhone, I was determined to be a part of history! I ensured Ii would follow it live. The Twitterverse was feverish, less important things like Obama’s state of the Union address was put aside. Even the Haiti crisis was demoted as the number one Trending topic (a position it held since the earthquake on the 12th).

Then the moment came, first, the name iPad was revealed (with quite muted cheers), then the product! It was obvious people were not ecstatic. When the first feature Steve Jobs talks about in a product is you can change the wallpaper then you know we have a problem. As inferred from Eric Schmidt’s comment when asked about the tablet, the iPad is nothing more than a big iPhone iPod touch at least the iPhone can make calls, has 3G, a camera and much more. The product Steve Jobs revealed though a very cool and useful product, is not groundbreaking or innovative. It is not worth the hype. It is almost in the same magnitude of the leap made from the iPod to the iPod touch. at least the iPod touch can be used for gaming!

I am really disappointed! and I am not the only one

REASONS THE iPAD WILL NOT BE AS SUCCESSFUL AS THE IPOD OR iPHONE.

A summary of my theory is  that this time around, Apple did not catch the competition unawares like it did with the iPod and does not have the first mover advantage it had with the iPhone. I’ll explain below.

1. Lack of ‘basic’ features

My fist reason to why it won’t sell well is there are too many things that the iPad does not have! A camera, USB port, Memory card reader (there are are are expensive propriety adaptors), it does not run flash and much more. I think that is a problem. People keep mentioning that the iPhone had several defects when it was released, but this is way different! The with the iPhone, the competition caught off guard! But right now, there are so many tablets in the market! there is  even one called Juju. and there are more coming. The first mover advantage the iPhone had is non existent. What the iPad has only done is to validate the market for other manufacturers to take it serious. a second point to this first reason is a lot of people who just love Apple will wait for version iPad2 when Apple will make the sought after additions.

2. The closed nature of the iPad.

Apple determines what you can do with your device. For example, Apple has decreed you cannot use flash with your tablet therefore forget about playing Mafia Wars and Farmville on it. Yeah, those videos you see online are run by flash too. You can only watch YouTube only because “there is an app for that”. I guarantee that other slates/tablets in the market will allow you do what ever you want with your device.

3. The Android platform as the iPad ‘killer’.

The awe of the iPhone is/was its usability and interface, i.e the operating system. It made people use phones in ways they never thought possible. It is for this reason people ignored that the first iPhone did not have copy and paste and could not do MMS (and it was a smart phone). People had no other choice so if you wanted a good Smartphone, it had to be the iPhone…until the Android OS came. The Android OS can essentially do what the iPhone OS can do and this is main problem for the iPad. Any good manufacturer can now focus on creating beautiful hardware then go ahead and install the FREE Android OS. Consumers will then be FREE to choose any device in what ever shape while enjoying the. Watch out for HTC entering the tablet/slate market having delivered on the Nexus One remember the iPad is just a bigger iPod touch/IPhone.

A major defence that Apple proponents bring up is the 140,000 apps in the iPhone appstore which can automatically work on the iPad: Apple having this number of Apps is no advantage. If my Pareto analysis is is accurate like it should be, then it is 20% of those apps that account for 80% of the downloads. Those ‘important’ 20% are available in the Android market.

Conclusion

Will the iPad be another Apple TV? No. But it will be no where as successful as the iPhone but more popular than Macbooks. Just as jobs positioned the iPad (a product between the phone and the Computer)

Where will that leave Netbooks? I think they are dead! Steve Jobs says Netbooks are not better at anything and he is right!

Notes:

  1. The computer state e.g Apple’s iPad will be a VERY successful product line. But this time around, apple will not dominate the market like it did with the iPod/iPhone
  2. I am expecting the iPad to be ‘upgraded’ before it ships.
  3. I do not have any idea where the Chrome OS comes in. Netbooks are dead!
  4. I am hoping Palm can do something here. The WebOS looks too beautiful and perfect of a slate.
Self — No Comments
26
Jan 10

Learning to write

At the start of this year, I listed improving my writing skills as one of my goals of the year. Towards that end, I resolved to write about three blog posts a week. I started on a bright note (about 4 in the first 10 days) then I hit a sudden bump. The reason was not because I ran out of things to write but because my writing was attacked. I submitted my article about the Google vs… China debacle to hacker news and rather than people discuss the merits or demerits of my article, it was my grammar and punctuation that was being discussed. It was highly embarrassing! Someone trying to come to my defence was saying that English might not be my first language. My confidence was hit hard! People who know me will testify that confidence is never a problem for me but this case is different. Such comments get to me only if what is being said. is true and I care about it.

Looking at the criticisms, I have to concede they are true.

The first was grammar: My co founder Joel, always accuses me of writing ‘Nigerian English’ (this is different form pidgin English) because most times, I  write how I speak. With Nigerians, it should not be a problem since it aim of writing and speaking is to communicate, However, with OnePage, my dealings will not be restricted to Nigerians so I must work on improving that.

The second was on flow. In the sense that I was trying to communicate too many things at the same time thereby coming out incoherent. I am used to speaking and thinking at the same time, this gives me several trails of thought. This is a great asset when solving problems or doing a bit of brain storming especially with a person who is knowledgeable about the topic in question. However, the essence of writing is to clarify thoughts and ideas and also enable communication with a variety of people at their own times. Therefore it is not an acceptable way to write to a varied audience. I must improve on that too.

Last year my main problem was unnecessary length and I believe I am working on that successfully.

So the prayer for my writing (blog) this year is for it to have wisdom of Paul Graham’s Essays, the confidence and radical thinking of the guys at 37Signals (in particular, Jason Fried and David Heinemeier Hansson) and the frequency of Seth Godin. Once a while, I hope to add the humour of Paul Carr. Don’t worry, I will not be copying anyone’s style.

I hope I have now tackled my demons *now. If you have any criticism, anything I should do, or books I should read to improve my writing, please send me a mail or make a comment, It will be deeply appreciated.

*in Nigerian English, the ‘now’ will be there.

Politics / Technology — 4 Comments
13
Jan 10

Google Vs. China: My Thoughts On Why The Chinese Did It.

Google has threatened to pull out of China citing human rights, security breach backed by the government, etc. and it is really a big deal! Below are my thoughts.

In my humble and simplistic view EVERYTHING happening in the world is a big chess game between the US, China, Russia and United Kingdom (hahahaha!! Of course I am kidding about the UK part).

Before now, the King (Super Power) of the world owned the largest weapons, then it moved to energy (Oil).  Now the Internet has changed all that. HE WHO HAS INFORMATION IS KING! In my post talking about Google’s dominance on the Internet, I spoke about governments being a major competition/obstacle for Google because of the amount of information it has on its citizens. You see, Google is an American company based in the US, so there is little you can to to convince me, the Chinese or the Russians that America does not have access to the information (= intelligence). For heavens sake Google parks their private jet in NASA! It is no surprise to me that Google is not the dominant search company in either Russia (Yandex) or China (Baidu).

On a side note, Facebook is not in China too.

So why did Google do it?

There are two schools of thought currently in the blogosphere

1. Human rights issues. They are just living up to their motto “Don’t be evil”.

My thoughts on this point:  Why did they go to China in the first place?  Google had always censored results in China before now I do not think they discovered their ‘conscience’ overnight.

2. Because they are loosing market share they need an excuse to succumb to defeat with their heads held high while getting a bit of positive PR.

As regards to this point, I think it is a ridiculous assertion. Google is not known to be making any loss (The are expected to hit $600M revenue this year) in China, so it makes absolute no sense to leave. Secondly, will be stupid to throw away  the human capital/knowledge (employees)  they have built up over the years  for reason of loosing market share. Moreover they will not burn the bridge with China (which they have effectively done)  if they just want to leave the business of search in China.

So i’ll say neither.

My theory (speculation) is this: Google must have realised that it has been infiltrated by by the Chinese government both form within and outside and must have lost some IP, which will be important in the battle for “organizing the worlds information”. They realize they have much more to loose than gain by operation in China.

So why did the Chinese do it?

Simple! They are now global players and they have to be on top of things. They cannot allow an American company/government have all that intelligence on their people. It will not happen now, it will not happen in future. The Chinese tactic is simple, lure greedy American companies to the country (1.3 billion is one hell of a market opportunity); Give them enough market share (some scores of millions) to allow them satisfy their greed while not compromising national security. At the same time getting enough  knowledge of the IP/Technology they own. It is a win-win deal….for the Chinese.

The only party that might loose from Google pulling out is the US government. Google will make lots of money in other parts of the world (if other governments do not follow suit), The Chinese people do not use Google anyway, and the Chinese government will lure in the next greedy company to take the space vacuum created by Google .

Did I hear you say Bing? (it even sounds Chinese!)

Self — 2 Comments
12
Jan 10

A birthday Rant: Why I feel Too Old At 27

Today is my 27th birthday and I feel too old. Too old not to have made a mark on this world yet.

Let me give a little background to my little rant.

My life’s vision is simple: To inspire a new generation of Nigerian Internet Entrepreneurs through education and mentoring. (It will be revised if the Internet stops being relevant).

For me to fulfil my vision and be a true role model for Nigeria future internet stars, I have to be successful (create value and money) on the Internet. Money made from working in oil companies, banks, telecommunication does not count. I have also believed that this success should come in my 20’s and the reason behind that thought is that it would be easier to convince a 20 year old that he has what it takes to make it now if i did so when i was like him.

This year would make it 17 years since I first got exposed to a computer and 11 years since I first used the Internet. I am feeling a bit sad I didn’t take my chances. I should be making my mark on the web by now.

What about your degrees? They are what took your time… 

I do not know how the world has made people believe that ‘finishing school’ is an achievement on its own. There is no big deal in attending school especially when it has been paid for by someone else. If someone has done something (say a patent, added value to somebody’s life) while going to school then that is different. people never stop learning till they die, so going to school to learn cannot be counted as an achievement.

But  27 is still early…

That is not what people like Chimamanda Adichie, Chinua Achebe  (people do not realise Things Fall Apart was written when he was 27) and the people that have done stuff said. My role models (Zucky, Larry and Sergey, Bill Gates and others) where able to make their mark by the age of 27. I might be arrogant to try to make comparisons with such great people but I refuse to believe ambition is a crime

So what should happen now?…

The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best time is NOW! –  African Proverb

I fully understand I cannot turn back the hands of time so it what I do from now that counts. It is why OnePage means a lot to me, it sets the stage for everything I want in life. So I really hope I grab the present and future opportunities.

Things I hope to do before I am 30

  • Write a book
  • Pioneer a start-up incubator (ala Y Combinator) in Nigeria.
  • Start what I call Micro Angel Investing

If I can succeed in these, I will feel very young on my 30th birthday. Who said age is irreversible? So anytime you see me, I need you to put the pressure on me and ask me “how far?”. Believe me , it will help.

Rant over!

Special thanks to my Mum and Dad for bringing me into this interesting world. Without you guys, I might have been somewhere on Pandora. You guys are the bestest parents anyone can wish for. I love you both.

This evening, with a bottle of Budweiser in my hand, I’ll watch the Super Eagles of Nigeria deliver my present through the Pharaohs of Egypt.

Lets go there!

← Older Entries