How Tech Founders Could Articulate Their "Why (Now)?" Thesis.

In the past couple of months I have found myself repeating the same advice when scrutinising a founder's startup decision both new ones or established ones seeking a pivot. (No) thanks to the proliferation of AI technology and its attendant offshoots, Agents. Rather than keep repeating myself, I thought to write this so I can just send them the link.

A product is a bet on a thesis, and if that thesis holds true for a large market and you are able to execute on it, then you will build a successful startup. But it starts with a thesis "the core propositions, assertions, or fundamental claims that make up the structure of that theory".

Sometimes it's related to articulating a problem (why?) or a particular timing (why now?). I'll give a couple of examples.

With Uber, the why always existed, "people wanted to get taxis in an instant". The why now was the proliferation of mobile devices, GPS and digital maps in the hands of everyone.

With Lemfi, the Japa trend (mass migration of the middle class) especially to Canada without the corresponding remittance support for certain corridors like Canada - Nigeria and markets (Wise, et al) were dropping Nigerians and other African markets like hot potatoes helped form the basis to motivate Ridwan to solve for that market.

When it comes to AI, the one I read about Lovable is built on a brilliant corollary using Canva. They stated that Canva was successful because they expanded the designer population from say 5 million people that could navigate the complexity and cost of photoshop to about 80 million by creating access that photoshop didn't. And thanks to the recent advances of AI, Lovable would do something similar in expanding those that can build apps from those that understand the complexity of IDEs.

So if you are a founder in your early stages, it would help if you can form a thesis around what you are building. It will help you create a bit of an emotional distance with your idea and allow you to evolve it. In the case of an Uber, you could determine what parameters indicated a market size. If there weren't many smartphones, then doing an Uber in that country would be premature. Or at least, executing it the way Uber did it.

Agents are good enough to eliminate a lot of clicking chores. A founder could find an industry where digital data entry is a massive pain point and tell a good story around it ( Hello Schengen Visa Applications and booking dummy Flights and Hotels).

"We are in the AI era", or "The future is agentic" as one founder recently told me, aren't great theories to form a thesis around.

I agree that sometimes hunches work - the fact that people did not understand the theory of gravity did not stop apples from falling from trees; and being able to formulate a great thesis doesn't mean you would be able to build the right product for it. But sometimes understanding "why (now)" makes it easier to communicate to prospective investors, builders and customers and help you make fewer mistakes.